XRP 15-minute market stats
Every KXXRP15M window from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026: whether XRP went up, how the odds did with 5 minutes left, and when it trades.
2,302 windows50.1% went up83% favorite won at 5 min left10.0M contracts a day
Last 96 windows
39 up, 57 down · Nov 7, 6:45 PM to Nov 8, 6:45 PM ET
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Up or down, by hour (ET)
XRP went up in 50.1% of windows. With about 96 windows an hour, anything from 40% to 60% is ordinary swing. Outside that: windows starting 2 AM (61% up, 100 windows); windows starting 9 PM (39% up, 96 windows).
More ups More downs Ordinary swing
Table
| Starts (ET) | Windows | Went up |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 100 | 57% |
| 1 AM | 105 | 47% |
| 2 AM | 100 | 61% |
| 3 AM | 85 | 51% |
| 4 AM | 86 | 50% |
| 5 AM | 100 | 48% |
| 6 AM | 100 | 54% |
| 7 AM | 102 | 46% |
| 8 AM | 100 | 54% |
| 9 AM | 101 | 42% |
| 10 AM | 97 | 48% |
| 11 AM | 96 | 56% |
| 12 PM | 96 | 47% |
| 1 PM | 96 | 50% |
| 2 PM | 93 | 51% |
| 3 PM | 93 | 49% |
| 4 PM | 94 | 50% |
| 5 PM | 92 | 49% |
| 6 PM | 91 | 52% |
| 7 PM | 87 | 55% |
| 8 PM | 92 | 46% |
| 9 PM | 96 | 39% |
| 10 PM | 100 | 59% |
| 11 PM | 100 | 44% |
After a streak
After 1 to 5+ windows the same way, the next one repeated 30% to 54% of the time.
| In a row | Ups: up again | Downs: down again |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% of 590 | 52% of 588 |
| 2 | 48% of 292 | 47% of 303 |
| 3 | 54% of 140 | 41% of 143 |
| 4 | 43% of 76 | 39% of 59 |
| 5 or more | 30% of 44 | 45% of 42 |
The odds with 5 minutes left
The side priced as the favorite with 5 minutes left won 83% of the time. Prices matched results closely (1.7 points apart on average): after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 7 of 10 price ranges.
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 999 | 4% | −$0.39 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 398 | 12% | −$0.26 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 283 | 27% | +$0.02 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 260 | 36% | $0.00 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 252 | 43% | −$0.06 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 263 | 55% | −$0.03 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 251 | 63% | −$0.05 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 291 | 69% | −$0.09 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 398 | 85% | $0.00 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,063 | 96% | $0.00 |
When it trades (ET)
10.0M contracts and 309K trades a day. Busiest at 5 PM ET, quietest at 5 AM ET.
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Average spread |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 472,233 | 2.2¢ |
| 1 AM | 441,974 | 2.6¢ |
| 2 AM | 388,538 | 2.5¢ |
| 3 AM | 299,906 | 2.1¢ |
| 4 AM | 275,510 | 2.3¢ |
| 5 AM | 263,989 | 2.2¢ |
| 6 AM | 265,228 | 2.3¢ |
| 7 AM | 283,969 | 2.7¢ |
| 8 AM | 336,425 | 2.3¢ |
| 9 AM | 374,437 | 2.3¢ |
| 10 AM | 390,191 | 2.2¢ |
| 11 AM | 408,149 | 2.3¢ |
| 12 PM | 417,511 | 2.6¢ |
| 1 PM | 425,130 | 2.4¢ |
| 2 PM | 460,237 | 3.1¢ |
| 3 PM | 514,578 | 3.0¢ |
| 4 PM | 463,981 | 2.7¢ |
| 5 PM | 527,790 | 2.8¢ |
| 6 PM | 489,055 | 2.7¢ |
| 7 PM | 480,098 | 2.5¢ |
| 8 PM | 481,550 | 2.2¢ |
| 9 PM | 494,834 | 2.9¢ |
| 10 PM | 511,073 | 2.5¢ |
| 11 PM | 492,249 | 2.3¢ |
How it's counted
- A window is one market: YES pays if XRP is up at the end of its 15 minutes. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- The price with 5 minutes left is from the 1-minute bar that ends then. Each window counts twice there: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.