BNB 15-minute market stats
Every KXBNB15M window from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026: whether BNB went up, how the odds did with 5 minutes left, and when it trades.
2,626 windows50.4% went up83% favorite won at 5 min left2.4M contracts a day
Last 96 windows
47 up, 49 down · Nov 7, 6:45 PM to Nov 8, 6:45 PM ET
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Up or down, by hour (ET)
BNB went up in 50.4% of windows. With about 109 windows an hour, anything from 41% to 59% is ordinary swing. No hour stood outside it.
More ups More downs Ordinary swing
Table
| Starts (ET) | Windows | Went up |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 112 | 54% |
| 1 AM | 116 | 45% |
| 2 AM | 112 | 52% |
| 3 AM | 96 | 51% |
| 4 AM | 96 | 42% |
| 5 AM | 112 | 52% |
| 6 AM | 112 | 57% |
| 7 AM | 112 | 53% |
| 8 AM | 112 | 49% |
| 9 AM | 112 | 43% |
| 10 AM | 112 | 56% |
| 11 AM | 110 | 45% |
| 12 PM | 112 | 46% |
| 1 PM | 110 | 53% |
| 2 PM | 108 | 45% |
| 3 PM | 108 | 54% |
| 4 PM | 108 | 49% |
| 5 PM | 108 | 56% |
| 6 PM | 107 | 52% |
| 7 PM | 103 | 54% |
| 8 PM | 112 | 49% |
| 9 PM | 112 | 56% |
| 10 PM | 112 | 53% |
| 11 PM | 112 | 43% |
After a streak
After 1 to 5+ windows the same way, the next one repeated 48% to 55% of the time: no better than a coin flip.
| In a row | Ups: up again | Downs: down again |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% of 633 | 53% of 634 |
| 2 | 50% of 337 | 48% of 331 |
| 3 | 51% of 170 | 50% of 159 |
| 4 | 53% of 86 | 53% of 80 |
| 5 or more | 51% of 94 | 55% of 94 |
The odds with 5 minutes left
The side priced as the favorite with 5 minutes left won 83% of the time. Prices matched results closely (1.4 points apart on average): after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 9 of 10 price ranges.
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 1,146 | 4% | −$0.31 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 454 | 14% | −$0.07 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 335 | 19% | −$0.27 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 269 | 37% | +$0.04 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 273 | 44% | −$0.04 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 286 | 50% | −$0.10 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 286 | 66% | $0.00 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 320 | 75% | −$0.02 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 458 | 85% | −$0.01 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,224 | 96% | −$0.01 |
When it trades (ET)
2.4M contracts and 137K trades a day. Busiest at 11 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Average spread |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 105,409 | 2.6¢ |
| 1 AM | 110,553 | 2.6¢ |
| 2 AM | 100,878 | 2.7¢ |
| 3 AM | 83,289 | 2.8¢ |
| 4 AM | 72,190 | 2.6¢ |
| 5 AM | 80,481 | 2.7¢ |
| 6 AM | 80,539 | 2.8¢ |
| 7 AM | 82,659 | 3.0¢ |
| 8 AM | 91,922 | 2.6¢ |
| 9 AM | 96,384 | 2.5¢ |
| 10 AM | 93,936 | 2.2¢ |
| 11 AM | 93,508 | 2.2¢ |
| 12 PM | 102,537 | 3.0¢ |
| 1 PM | 98,922 | 2.7¢ |
| 2 PM | 110,738 | 3.0¢ |
| 3 PM | 110,358 | 3.2¢ |
| 4 PM | 92,528 | 2.7¢ |
| 5 PM | 108,498 | 3.1¢ |
| 6 PM | 115,194 | 3.0¢ |
| 7 PM | 108,859 | 2.7¢ |
| 8 PM | 116,863 | 2.6¢ |
| 9 PM | 102,597 | 2.9¢ |
| 10 PM | 118,501 | 2.7¢ |
| 11 PM | 120,120 | 3.0¢ |
How it's counted
- A window is one market: YES pays if BNB is up at the end of its 15 minutes. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- The price with 5 minutes left is from the 1-minute bar that ends then. Each window counts twice there: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.