Ethereum 15-minute market stats
Every KXETH15M window from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026: whether ETH went up, how the odds did with 5 minutes left, and when it trades.
2,598 windows48.4% went up84% favorite won at 5 min left19.0M contracts a day
Last 96 windows
47 up, 49 down · Nov 7, 6:45 PM to Nov 8, 6:45 PM ET
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Up or down, by hour (ET)
ETH went up in 48.4% of windows. With about 108 windows an hour, anything from 41% to 59% is ordinary swing. Outside that: windows starting 12 PM (41% up, 111 windows); windows starting 6 PM (40% up, 103 windows).
More ups More downs Ordinary swing
Table
| Starts (ET) | Windows | Went up |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 112 | 52% |
| 1 AM | 116 | 46% |
| 2 AM | 112 | 52% |
| 3 AM | 96 | 52% |
| 4 AM | 96 | 47% |
| 5 AM | 112 | 50% |
| 6 AM | 112 | 49% |
| 7 AM | 112 | 43% |
| 8 AM | 112 | 46% |
| 9 AM | 112 | 46% |
| 10 AM | 112 | 52% |
| 11 AM | 112 | 49% |
| 12 PM | 111 | 41% |
| 1 PM | 105 | 48% |
| 2 PM | 102 | 44% |
| 3 PM | 102 | 45% |
| 4 PM | 104 | 53% |
| 5 PM | 104 | 49% |
| 6 PM | 103 | 40% |
| 7 PM | 103 | 50% |
| 8 PM | 112 | 55% |
| 9 PM | 112 | 48% |
| 10 PM | 112 | 57% |
| 11 PM | 112 | 48% |
After a streak
After 1 to 5+ windows the same way, the next one repeated 43% to 57% of the time: no better than a coin flip.
| In a row | Ups: up again | Downs: down again |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% of 662 | 52% of 666 |
| 2 | 45% of 326 | 47% of 346 |
| 3 | 45% of 148 | 48% of 163 |
| 4 | 45% of 67 | 47% of 77 |
| 5 or more | 43% of 53 | 57% of 81 |
The odds with 5 minutes left
The side priced as the favorite with 5 minutes left won 84% of the time. Prices matched results closely (1.8 points apart on average): after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 7 of 10 price ranges.
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 1,106 | 3% | −$0.27 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 450 | 16% | +$0.04 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 334 | 23% | −$0.12 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 292 | 32% | −$0.10 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 274 | 44% | −$0.05 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 286 | 55% | −$0.02 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 284 | 64% | −$0.04 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 337 | 77% | +$0.02 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 453 | 81% | −$0.05 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,162 | 96% | $0.00 |
When it trades (ET)
19.0M contracts and 468K trades a day. Busiest at 5 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Average spread |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 904,234 | 2.0¢ |
| 1 AM | 841,488 | 2.6¢ |
| 2 AM | 765,464 | 2.1¢ |
| 3 AM | 604,399 | 2.2¢ |
| 4 AM | 514,723 | 1.9¢ |
| 5 AM | 541,799 | 2.1¢ |
| 6 AM | 526,224 | 2.1¢ |
| 7 AM | 548,003 | 2.4¢ |
| 8 AM | 637,095 | 2.3¢ |
| 9 AM | 732,326 | 1.7¢ |
| 10 AM | 801,818 | 2.0¢ |
| 11 AM | 782,077 | 2.3¢ |
| 12 PM | 842,909 | 2.3¢ |
| 1 PM | 838,702 | 2.3¢ |
| 2 PM | 941,005 | 2.5¢ |
| 3 PM | 966,822 | 2.7¢ |
| 4 PM | 885,659 | 2.4¢ |
| 5 PM | 1,009,763 | 2.1¢ |
| 6 PM | 909,528 | 2.5¢ |
| 7 PM | 850,169 | 2.2¢ |
| 8 PM | 880,750 | 2.1¢ |
| 9 PM | 902,615 | 2.3¢ |
| 10 PM | 914,242 | 1.9¢ |
| 11 PM | 896,826 | 2.2¢ |
How it's counted
- A window is one market: YES pays if ETH is up at the end of its 15 minutes. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- The price with 5 minutes left is from the 1-minute bar that ends then. Each window counts twice there: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.