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Recording 4 venues
KXBTC15MKalshiEvery 15 minutes

Bitcoin 15-minute market stats

Every KXBTC15M window from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026: whether BTC went up, how the odds did with 5 minutes left, and when it trades.

2,607 windows48.4% went up81% favorite won at 5 min left264M contracts a day

Last 96 windows

47 up, 49 down · Nov 7, 6:45 PM to Nov 8, 6:45 PM ET

  1. Up
  2. Down
  3. Down
  4. Down
  5. Up
  6. Up
  7. Down
  8. Up
  9. Down
  10. Down
  11. Up
  12. Down
  13. Up
  14. Up
  15. Down
  16. Down
  17. Up
  18. Up
  19. Up
  20. Down
  21. Down
  22. Up
  23. Down
  24. Down
  25. Down
  26. Down
  27. Up
  28. Down
  29. Up
  30. Up
  31. Down
  32. Up
  33. Up
  34. Down
  35. Down
  36. Up
  37. Up
  38. Down
  39. Down
  40. Up
  41. Down
  42. Down
  43. Down
  44. Up
  45. Down
  46. Up
  47. Up
  48. Up
  49. Down
  50. Down
  51. Up
  52. Down
  53. Up
  54. Up
  55. Down
  56. Down
  57. Up
  58. Up
  59. Down
  60. Up
  61. Up
  62. Down
  63. Up
  64. Up
  65. Down
  66. Down
  67. Up
  68. Down
  69. Down
  70. Down
  71. Down
  72. Up
  73. Up
  74. Up
  75. Up
  76. Up
  77. Up
  78. Down
  79. Up
  80. Up
  81. Up
  82. Down
  83. Up
  84. Down
  85. Down
  86. Down
  87. Down
  88. Down
  89. Down
  90. Up
  91. Down
  92. Down
  93. Up
  94. Up
  95. Up
  96. Down
The dataSee plans

Up or down, by hour (ET)

BTC went up in 48.4% of windows. With about 109 windows an hour, anything from 41% to 59% is ordinary swing. Outside that: windows starting 9 AM (38% up, 112 windows); windows starting 12 PM (39% up, 111 windows).

Table
Starts (ET)WindowsWent up
12 AM11251%
1 AM11652%
2 AM11250%
3 AM9656%
4 AM9648%
5 AM11244%
6 AM11246%
7 AM11253%
8 AM11246%
9 AM11238%
10 AM11251%
11 AM11053%
12 PM11139%
1 PM11049%
2 PM10744%
3 PM10450%
4 PM10550%
5 PM10452%
6 PM10349%
7 PM10152%
8 PM11247%
9 PM11246%
10 PM11254%
11 PM11246%

After a streak

After 1 to 5+ windows the same way, the next one repeated 43% to 54% of the time: no better than a coin flip.

In a rowUps: up againDowns: down again
148% of 66151% of 660
247% of 31752% of 336
347% of 14849% of 175
443% of 6954% of 84
5 or more54% of 6546% of 82

The odds with 5 minutes left

The side priced as the favorite with 5 minutes left won 81% of the time. Prices matched results closely (1.9 points apart on average): after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 6 of 10 price ranges.

Price paidTimesWonPer $1, after fees
0¢–10¢9874%−$0.43
10¢–20¢46117%+$0.06
20¢–30¢39522%−$0.17
30¢–40¢30938%+$0.05
40¢–50¢32047%+$0.01
50¢–60¢30451%−$0.09
60¢–70¢31261%−$0.08
70¢–80¢40575%−$0.02
80¢–90¢45182%−$0.03
90¢–100¢1,05696%$0.00

When it trades (ET)

264M contracts and 3.3M trades a day. Busiest at 3 PM ET, quietest at 6 AM ET.

Table
Hour (ET)Contracts a dayAverage spread
12 AM12,455,6621.2¢
1 AM11,563,9221.1¢
2 AM9,957,1791.0¢
3 AM7,367,9001.1¢
4 AM6,183,6781.1¢
5 AM6,284,2301.2¢
6 AM5,972,3671.4¢
7 AM6,832,2151.3¢
8 AM7,877,7051.2¢
9 AM10,275,2101.2¢
10 AM11,855,9921.1¢
11 AM12,025,3191.3¢
12 PM12,555,4271.1¢
1 PM12,329,0931.3¢
2 PM13,191,2231.3¢
3 PM13,518,9901.5¢
4 PM12,646,8871.3¢
5 PM13,331,6641.2¢
6 PM13,181,0611.2¢
7 PM12,620,5831.1¢
8 PM13,376,9271.3¢
9 PM13,043,5591.4¢
10 PM12,975,2001.1¢
11 PM12,682,7031.3¢

How it's counted

  • A window is one market: YES pays if BTC is up at the end of its 15 minutes. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
  • The price with 5 minutes left is from the 1-minute bar that ends then. Each window counts twice there: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
  • Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
  • Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.

Other 15-minute coins

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