Solana 15-minute market stats
Every KXSOL15M window from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026: whether SOL went up, how the odds did with 5 minutes left, and when it trades.
2,534 windows48.3% went up85% favorite won at 5 min left8.2M contracts a day
Last 96 windows
46 up, 50 down · Nov 7, 6:45 PM to Nov 8, 6:45 PM ET
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Up or down, by hour (ET)
SOL went up in 48.3% of windows. With about 106 windows an hour, anything from 40% to 60% is ordinary swing. Outside that: windows starting 12 PM (40% up, 106 windows).
More ups More downs Ordinary swing
Table
| Starts (ET) | Windows | Went up |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 108 | 51% |
| 1 AM | 113 | 45% |
| 2 AM | 112 | 49% |
| 3 AM | 96 | 44% |
| 4 AM | 96 | 45% |
| 5 AM | 112 | 49% |
| 6 AM | 112 | 54% |
| 7 AM | 112 | 46% |
| 8 AM | 112 | 51% |
| 9 AM | 108 | 42% |
| 10 AM | 108 | 49% |
| 11 AM | 108 | 49% |
| 12 PM | 106 | 40% |
| 1 PM | 105 | 46% |
| 2 PM | 104 | 46% |
| 3 PM | 104 | 48% |
| 4 PM | 104 | 56% |
| 5 PM | 100 | 48% |
| 6 PM | 96 | 51% |
| 7 PM | 92 | 49% |
| 8 PM | 102 | 51% |
| 9 PM | 108 | 48% |
| 10 PM | 108 | 56% |
| 11 PM | 108 | 45% |
After a streak
After 1 to 5+ windows the same way, the next one repeated 41% to 54% of the time: no better than a coin flip.
| In a row | Ups: up again | Downs: down again |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% of 651 | 54% of 652 |
| 2 | 46% of 306 | 47% of 348 |
| 3 | 47% of 139 | 47% of 162 |
| 4 | 41% of 66 | 49% of 75 |
| 5 or more | 51% of 55 | 47% of 68 |
The odds with 5 minutes left
The side priced as the favorite with 5 minutes left won 85% of the time. Prices matched results closely (2.7 points apart on average): after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 6 of 10 price ranges.
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 1,099 | 3% | −$0.54 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 431 | 16% | +$0.03 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 341 | 25% | −$0.05 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 291 | 31% | −$0.13 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 257 | 35% | −$0.25 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 258 | 61% | +$0.08 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 274 | 69% | +$0.05 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 347 | 71% | −$0.06 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 437 | 84% | −$0.02 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,159 | 97% | $0.00 |
When it trades (ET)
8.2M contracts and 269K trades a day. Busiest at 5 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Average spread |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 381,377 | 2.3¢ |
| 1 AM | 382,454 | 2.6¢ |
| 2 AM | 335,980 | 2.6¢ |
| 3 AM | 302,364 | 2.1¢ |
| 4 AM | 239,814 | 2.2¢ |
| 5 AM | 248,027 | 2.3¢ |
| 6 AM | 257,496 | 2.2¢ |
| 7 AM | 247,591 | 2.6¢ |
| 8 AM | 274,839 | 2.4¢ |
| 9 AM | 312,202 | 2.1¢ |
| 10 AM | 317,932 | 2.2¢ |
| 11 AM | 304,106 | 2.2¢ |
| 12 PM | 367,853 | 2.6¢ |
| 1 PM | 357,766 | 2.3¢ |
| 2 PM | 388,474 | 2.8¢ |
| 3 PM | 389,444 | 2.9¢ |
| 4 PM | 375,049 | 2.5¢ |
| 5 PM | 407,332 | 2.7¢ |
| 6 PM | 390,506 | 2.6¢ |
| 7 PM | 395,517 | 2.3¢ |
| 8 PM | 375,125 | 2.2¢ |
| 9 PM | 364,832 | 2.9¢ |
| 10 PM | 399,003 | 2.5¢ |
| 11 PM | 379,974 | 2.1¢ |
How it's counted
- A window is one market: YES pays if SOL is up at the end of its 15 minutes. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- The price with 5 minutes left is from the 1-minute bar that ends then. Each window counts twice there: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.