The odds with 5 minutes left
The top-priced range with 5 minutes left won 66% of 381 hours. Prices and results were 7.3 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 10 of 10 price ranges.
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Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 143,695 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 2,369 | 2% | −$0.89 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 4,074 | 1% | −$0.97 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 379 | 7% | −$0.81 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 264 | 20% | −$0.58 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 491 | 17% | −$0.70 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 287 | 19% | −$0.72 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 615 | 20% | −$0.74 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 1,204 | 13% | −$0.85 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,921 | 35% | −$0.64 |
When it trades (ET)
11.1K contracts and 1.0K trades a day. Busiest at 8 AM ET, quietest at 4 PM ET.
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Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 467 | 35 |
| 1 AM | 333 | 33 |
| 2 AM | 348 | 34 |
| 3 AM | 248 | 30 |
| 4 AM | 376 | 27 |
| 5 AM | 545 | 47 |
| 6 AM | 505 | 45 |
| 7 AM | 432 | 37 |
| 8 AM | 1,012 | 73 |
| 9 AM | 610 | 57 |
| 10 AM | 523 | 51 |
| 11 AM | 261 | 34 |
| 12 PM | 616 | 41 |
| 1 PM | 454 | 38 |
| 2 PM | 524 | 49 |
| 3 PM | 451 | 46 |
| 4 PM | 239 | 30 |
| 5 PM | 388 | 43 |
| 6 PM | 821 | 68 |
| 7 PM | 442 | 48 |
| 8 PM | 456 | 40 |
| 9 PM | 346 | 46 |
| 10 PM | 415 | 40 |
| 11 PM | 285 | 36 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest with 5 minutes left. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.