The odds with 5 minutes left
The top-priced range with 5 minutes left won 60% of 514 hours. Prices and results were 4.9 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 9 of 10 price ranges.
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Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 94,013 | 0% | −$0.99 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 461 | 11% | −$0.29 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 294 | 26% | $0.00 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 280 | 30% | −$0.16 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 271 | 39% | −$0.15 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 275 | 51% | −$0.09 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 258 | 69% | +$0.05 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 315 | 71% | −$0.06 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 334 | 82% | −$0.05 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,040 | 94% | −$0.03 |
When it trades (ET)
717K contracts and 21.8K trades a day. Busiest at 4 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
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Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 20,165 | 875 |
| 1 AM | 18,029 | 685 |
| 2 AM | 16,313 | 625 |
| 3 AM | 11,805 | 512 |
| 4 AM | 10,243 | 491 |
| 5 AM | 11,536 | 526 |
| 6 AM | 14,152 | 666 |
| 7 AM | 16,312 | 745 |
| 8 AM | 43,315 | 1,042 |
| 9 AM | 45,174 | 1,169 |
| 10 AM | 41,441 | 1,074 |
| 11 AM | 41,800 | 1,016 |
| 12 PM | 44,085 | 1,014 |
| 1 PM | 40,698 | 1,008 |
| 2 PM | 46,044 | 1,026 |
| 3 PM | 54,269 | 1,174 |
| 4 PM | 80,596 | 1,877 |
| 5 PM | 30,269 | 1,053 |
| 6 PM | 24,492 | 911 |
| 7 PM | 23,784 | 969 |
| 8 PM | 22,346 | 885 |
| 9 PM | 21,222 | 875 |
| 10 PM | 19,917 | 810 |
| 11 PM | 18,680 | 734 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest with 5 minutes left. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.