Bitcoin hourly above/below market stats
Every KXBTCD hour from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026: how the favorite side of each strike still in doubt did with 5 minutes left, what each price returned after fees, and when it trades.
570 hours75% favorite won with 5 minutes left21.5M contracts a daybusiest at 10 AM ET
The odds with 5 minutes left
Of strikes still in doubt with 5 minutes left (priced 10¢ to 90¢), the favorite side won 75% of 770. Prices and results were 4.9 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 9 of 10 price ranges.
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Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 95,718 | 0% | −$0.99 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 258 | 14% | −$0.01 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 203 | 24% | −$0.07 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 158 | 32% | −$0.08 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 153 | 35% | −$0.25 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 131 | 56% | $0.00 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 150 | 71% | +$0.09 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 206 | 73% | −$0.03 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 253 | 85% | −$0.01 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,055 | 95% | −$0.02 |
When it trades (ET)
21.5M contracts and 319K trades a day. Busiest at 10 AM ET, quietest at 5 AM ET.
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9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 845,033 | 13,277 |
| 1 AM | 691,166 | 10,210 |
| 2 AM | 564,658 | 8,613 |
| 3 AM | 469,461 | 7,209 |
| 4 AM | 431,519 | 6,990 |
| 5 AM | 414,940 | 6,977 |
| 6 AM | 472,162 | 8,132 |
| 7 AM | 566,278 | 9,194 |
| 8 AM | 890,331 | 13,392 |
| 9 AM | 1,183,100 | 18,270 |
| 10 AM | 1,297,214 | 18,923 |
| 11 AM | 1,212,670 | 17,413 |
| 12 PM | 1,155,518 | 16,647 |
| 1 PM | 1,069,618 | 15,412 |
| 2 PM | 1,068,248 | 15,141 |
| 3 PM | 1,110,374 | 15,550 |
| 4 PM | 1,156,085 | 14,558 |
| 5 PM | 1,039,410 | 14,320 |
| 6 PM | 937,917 | 14,387 |
| 7 PM | 1,067,681 | 16,095 |
| 8 PM | 932,915 | 14,790 |
| 9 PM | 973,409 | 15,033 |
| 10 PM | 1,001,077 | 15,205 |
| 11 PM | 900,929 | 13,183 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour has many strikes, each its own yes/no market. A strike counts toward the favorite's record when its mid was 10¢ to 90¢; the favorite side is the one over 50¢. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.