Solana hourly above/below market stats
Every KXSOLD hour from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026: how the favorite side of each strike still in doubt did with 5 minutes left, what each price returned after fees, and when it trades.
571 hours74% favorite won with 5 minutes left171K contracts a daybusiest at 9 AM ET
The odds with 5 minutes left
Of strikes still in doubt with 5 minutes left (priced 10¢ to 90¢), the favorite side won 74% of 580. Prices and results were 6.4 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 10 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 143,005 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 3,337 | 1% | −$0.94 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 1,064 | 2% | −$0.91 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 1,414 | 2% | −$0.94 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 1,525 | 3% | −$0.94 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 173 | 24% | −$0.57 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 284 | 21% | −$0.68 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 449 | 21% | −$0.72 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 599 | 23% | −$0.73 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 817 | 87% | −$0.10 |
When it trades (ET)
171K contracts and 8.4K trades a day. Busiest at 9 AM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 7,515 | 340 |
| 1 AM | 7,457 | 327 |
| 2 AM | 5,918 | 272 |
| 3 AM | 5,139 | 235 |
| 4 AM | 5,045 | 231 |
| 5 AM | 5,975 | 260 |
| 6 AM | 5,760 | 291 |
| 7 AM | 5,662 | 282 |
| 8 AM | 8,609 | 455 |
| 9 AM | 9,953 | 554 |
| 10 AM | 7,142 | 406 |
| 11 AM | 8,770 | 342 |
| 12 PM | 7,125 | 365 |
| 1 PM | 7,180 | 361 |
| 2 PM | 7,693 | 392 |
| 3 PM | 9,007 | 400 |
| 4 PM | 7,335 | 285 |
| 5 PM | 7,551 | 398 |
| 6 PM | 8,998 | 447 |
| 7 PM | 6,963 | 370 |
| 8 PM | 6,611 | 357 |
| 9 PM | 6,986 | 370 |
| 10 PM | 6,349 | 327 |
| 11 PM | 6,549 | 327 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour has many strikes, each its own yes/no market. A strike counts toward the favorite's record when its mid was 10¢ to 90¢; the favorite side is the one over 50¢. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.