The odds with 5 minutes left
The top-priced range with 5 minutes left won 67% of 502 hours. Prices and results were 6.5 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 10 of 10 price ranges.
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90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 140,346 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 1,765 | 2% | −$0.87 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 5,756 | 1% | −$0.97 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 1,859 | 4% | −$0.88 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 174 | 37% | −$0.22 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 236 | 43% | −$0.24 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 279 | 47% | −$0.30 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 417 | 34% | −$0.55 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 705 | 38% | −$0.56 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 953 | 81% | −$0.16 |
When it trades (ET)
133K contracts and 2.4K trades a day. Busiest at 4 PM ET, quietest at 5 AM ET.
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9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 690 | 86 |
| 1 AM | 734 | 72 |
| 2 AM | 564 | 76 |
| 3 AM | 526 | 65 |
| 4 AM | 468 | 60 |
| 5 AM | 460 | 63 |
| 6 AM | 727 | 88 |
| 7 AM | 1,318 | 101 |
| 8 AM | 9,781 | 122 |
| 9 AM | 9,723 | 113 |
| 10 AM | 14,839 | 138 |
| 11 AM | 11,299 | 106 |
| 12 PM | 12,504 | 142 |
| 1 PM | 12,362 | 128 |
| 2 PM | 12,572 | 167 |
| 3 PM | 16,155 | 133 |
| 4 PM | 22,186 | 137 |
| 5 PM | 1,414 | 114 |
| 6 PM | 816 | 86 |
| 7 PM | 974 | 99 |
| 8 PM | 825 | 89 |
| 9 PM | 739 | 100 |
| 10 PM | 759 | 87 |
| 11 PM | 511 | 79 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest with 5 minutes left. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.