Ethereum hourly above/below market stats
Every KXETHD hour from Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026: how the favorite side of each strike still in doubt did with 5 minutes left, what each price returned after fees, and when it trades.
575 hours72% favorite won with 5 minutes left731K contracts a daybusiest at 10 AM ET
The odds with 5 minutes left
Of strikes still in doubt with 5 minutes left (priced 10¢ to 90¢), the favorite side won 72% of 573. Prices and results were 5.6 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 10 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
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90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 147,090 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 873 | 3% | −$0.79 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 427 | 7% | −$0.72 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 1,468 | 2% | −$0.94 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 903 | 7% | −$0.86 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 306 | 16% | −$0.71 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 137 | 53% | −$0.22 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 156 | 58% | −$0.25 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 219 | 79% | −$0.07 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 774 | 96% | −$0.01 |
When it trades (ET)
731K contracts and 22.8K trades a day. Busiest at 10 AM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
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9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 22,107 | 878 |
| 1 AM | 18,309 | 725 |
| 2 AM | 15,095 | 631 |
| 3 AM | 12,542 | 555 |
| 4 AM | 11,034 | 513 |
| 5 AM | 12,140 | 541 |
| 6 AM | 15,652 | 689 |
| 7 AM | 18,461 | 679 |
| 8 AM | 43,714 | 1,179 |
| 9 AM | 58,475 | 1,416 |
| 10 AM | 62,048 | 1,409 |
| 11 AM | 44,415 | 1,202 |
| 12 PM | 47,007 | 1,219 |
| 1 PM | 42,556 | 1,138 |
| 2 PM | 47,050 | 1,236 |
| 3 PM | 50,810 | 1,142 |
| 4 PM | 53,000 | 995 |
| 5 PM | 26,702 | 1,054 |
| 6 PM | 22,227 | 954 |
| 7 PM | 22,702 | 958 |
| 8 PM | 19,717 | 908 |
| 9 PM | 21,356 | 981 |
| 10 PM | 22,440 | 988 |
| 11 PM | 21,140 | 840 |
How it’s counted
- Each hour has many strikes, each its own yes/no market. A strike counts toward the favorite's record when its mid was 10¢ to 90¢; the favorite side is the one over 50¢. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at 5 minutes before the close. Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.