The odds at the start
The favorite at the start won 73% of 59 games. Prices and results were 8.2 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 5 of 8 price ranges.
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢–20¢ | 9 | 33% | +$1.02 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 27 | 19% | −$0.29 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 43 | 26% | −$0.36 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 35 | 37% | −$0.19 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 34 | 56% | −$0.01 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 52 | 73% | +$0.11 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 26 | 85% | +$0.11 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 12 | 67% | −$0.21 |
When it trades (ET)
50.0M contracts and 271K trades a day. Busiest at 11 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 147,240 | 2,097 |
| 1 AM | 138,700 | 1,651 |
| 2 AM | 112,131 | 1,166 |
| 3 AM | 64,231 | 767 |
| 4 AM | 44,164 | 616 |
| 5 AM | 49,380 | 690 |
| 6 AM | 62,448 | 919 |
| 7 AM | 94,633 | 1,413 |
| 8 AM | 156,394 | 2,266 |
| 9 AM | 408,931 | 4,098 |
| 10 AM | 541,234 | 5,418 |
| 11 AM | 707,494 | 6,700 |
| 12 PM | 1,645,316 | 11,373 |
| 1 PM | 2,388,061 | 14,984 |
| 2 PM | 2,423,899 | 13,243 |
| 3 PM | 4,147,633 | 21,646 |
| 4 PM | 4,934,600 | 27,152 |
| 5 PM | 1,996,842 | 12,526 |
| 6 PM | 3,112,829 | 17,062 |
| 7 PM | 3,529,623 | 18,829 |
| 8 PM | 4,378,924 | 23,898 |
| 9 PM | 4,188,704 | 19,946 |
| 10 PM | 6,778,447 | 27,245 |
| 11 PM | 7,984,258 | 35,064 |
How it’s counted
- Each game is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest at the start. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at the scheduled start, from the game's schedule (120 of 120 markets had one). Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.