The odds at the start
The favorite at the start won 71% of 462 games. Prices and results were 5.2 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 6 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 86 | 5% | −$0.51 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 171 | 15% | −$0.13 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 208 | 28% | +$0.06 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 224 | 43% | +$0.20 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 222 | 32% | −$0.32 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 227 | 62% | +$0.09 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 226 | 62% | −$0.07 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 227 | 68% | −$0.11 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 168 | 84% | −$0.02 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 106 | 94% | $0.00 |
When it trades (ET)
46.7M contracts and 299K trades a day. Busiest at 10 PM ET, quietest at 5 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 1,798,445 | 10,451 |
| 1 AM | 2,577,150 | 12,797 |
| 2 AM | 766,685 | 3,876 |
| 3 AM | 49,381 | 365 |
| 4 AM | 38,285 | 277 |
| 5 AM | 33,651 | 327 |
| 6 AM | 143,156 | 473 |
| 7 AM | 92,185 | 769 |
| 8 AM | 170,948 | 1,244 |
| 9 AM | 209,841 | 1,928 |
| 10 AM | 353,206 | 2,624 |
| 11 AM | 589,038 | 4,240 |
| 12 PM | 1,376,592 | 9,741 |
| 1 PM | 1,617,676 | 10,630 |
| 2 PM | 1,961,582 | 14,068 |
| 3 PM | 3,345,758 | 23,082 |
| 4 PM | 2,085,460 | 16,856 |
| 5 PM | 1,951,359 | 15,313 |
| 6 PM | 3,407,274 | 22,257 |
| 7 PM | 4,224,314 | 30,038 |
| 8 PM | 3,415,649 | 22,143 |
| 9 PM | 4,059,555 | 25,386 |
| 10 PM | 7,151,552 | 40,513 |
| 11 PM | 5,248,502 | 29,805 |
How it’s counted
- Each game is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest at the start. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at the scheduled start, from the game's schedule (941 of 941 markets had one). Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 14, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.