The odds at the start
The favorite at the start won 75% of 2,543 matches. Prices and results were 4.6 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 10 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 741 | 3% | −$0.56 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 879 | 10% | −$0.35 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 882 | 22% | −$0.14 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 945 | 33% | −$0.08 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 1,010 | 40% | −$0.13 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 1,121 | 49% | −$0.12 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 1,098 | 62% | −$0.06 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 1,043 | 69% | −$0.09 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 1,056 | 77% | −$0.10 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 1,501 | 90% | −$0.05 |
When it trades (ET)
23.2M contracts and 307K trades a day. Busiest at 11 PM ET, quietest at 3 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 1,324,566 | 16,961 |
| 1 AM | 947,465 | 12,033 |
| 2 AM | 625,433 | 8,989 |
| 3 AM | 537,106 | 8,141 |
| 4 AM | 589,351 | 9,748 |
| 5 AM | 653,898 | 11,258 |
| 6 AM | 678,415 | 11,406 |
| 7 AM | 657,389 | 10,570 |
| 8 AM | 780,089 | 12,417 |
| 9 AM | 879,881 | 13,287 |
| 10 AM | 997,053 | 13,360 |
| 11 AM | 1,011,470 | 13,124 |
| 12 PM | 1,292,069 | 16,913 |
| 1 PM | 1,414,237 | 17,759 |
| 2 PM | 1,327,653 | 17,524 |
| 3 PM | 1,097,256 | 13,602 |
| 4 PM | 1,006,762 | 11,682 |
| 5 PM | 1,151,381 | 13,365 |
| 6 PM | 815,237 | 9,679 |
| 7 PM | 845,931 | 9,679 |
| 8 PM | 924,132 | 10,246 |
| 9 PM | 947,130 | 10,605 |
| 10 PM | 1,116,793 | 13,718 |
| 11 PM | 1,609,369 | 20,655 |
How it’s counted
- Each match is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest at the start. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at the scheduled start, from the game's schedule (6,047 of 6,049 markets had one). Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.