The odds at the start
The favorite at the start won 72% of 199 games. Prices and results were 5.4 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 7 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 6 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 51 | 0% | −$1.00 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 81 | 16% | −$0.44 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 116 | 34% | −$0.06 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 140 | 40% | −$0.14 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 131 | 55% | −$0.03 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 120 | 72% | +$0.09 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 87 | 72% | −$0.04 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 60 | 100% | +$0.18 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 14 | 100% | +$0.08 |
When it trades (ET)
40.4M contracts and 262K trades a day. Busiest at 9 PM ET, quietest at 5 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 4,569,408 | 25,826 |
| 1 AM | 838,558 | 5,477 |
| 2 AM | 52,770 | 655 |
| 3 AM | 27,842 | 399 |
| 4 AM | 22,417 | 309 |
| 5 AM | 20,021 | 354 |
| 6 AM | 36,293 | 446 |
| 7 AM | 163,405 | 672 |
| 8 AM | 108,069 | 876 |
| 9 AM | 99,467 | 1,148 |
| 10 AM | 83,170 | 1,390 |
| 11 AM | 124,791 | 1,601 |
| 12 PM | 137,850 | 1,849 |
| 1 PM | 269,648 | 2,024 |
| 2 PM | 261,823 | 2,311 |
| 3 PM | 365,114 | 3,074 |
| 4 PM | 620,562 | 4,443 |
| 5 PM | 1,204,084 | 8,250 |
| 6 PM | 1,520,707 | 10,350 |
| 7 PM | 3,540,711 | 21,803 |
| 8 PM | 5,247,305 | 32,843 |
| 9 PM | 8,556,935 | 57,696 |
| 10 PM | 6,978,236 | 45,125 |
| 11 PM | 5,580,496 | 33,480 |
How it’s counted
- Each game is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest at the start. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at the scheduled start, from the game's schedule (416 of 416 markets had one). Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.