The odds at the start
The favorite at the start won 65% of 1,026 matches. Prices and results were 3.0 points apart on average; after fees, buying at the ask lost money in 7 of 10 price ranges.
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
60¢
70¢
80¢
90¢
Won Price paid (middle of the range)
| Price paid | Times | Won | Per $1, after fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0¢–10¢ | 94 | 4% | −$0.43 |
| 10¢–20¢ | 213 | 13% | −$0.23 |
| 20¢–30¢ | 407 | 30% | +$0.14 |
| 30¢–40¢ | 611 | 36% | −$0.02 |
| 40¢–50¢ | 666 | 47% | +$0.02 |
| 50¢–60¢ | 629 | 52% | −$0.09 |
| 60¢–70¢ | 658 | 63% | −$0.05 |
| 70¢–80¢ | 447 | 67% | −$0.11 |
| 80¢–90¢ | 258 | 81% | −$0.04 |
| 90¢–100¢ | 137 | 94% | $0.00 |
When it trades (ET)
35.1M contracts and 290K trades a day. Busiest at 12 PM ET, quietest at 4 AM ET.
12AM
3AM
6AM
9AM
12PM
3PM
6PM
9PM
Table
| Hour (ET) | Contracts a day | Trades a day |
|---|---|---|
| 12 AM | 1,452,055 | 12,456 |
| 1 AM | 1,738,582 | 14,221 |
| 2 AM | 1,297,697 | 10,352 |
| 3 AM | 828,492 | 7,101 |
| 4 AM | 699,982 | 5,630 |
| 5 AM | 728,602 | 6,339 |
| 6 AM | 827,830 | 6,684 |
| 7 AM | 998,955 | 8,256 |
| 8 AM | 1,213,927 | 10,739 |
| 9 AM | 1,588,955 | 13,172 |
| 10 AM | 1,683,605 | 13,646 |
| 11 AM | 2,012,255 | 17,546 |
| 12 PM | 2,273,360 | 18,448 |
| 1 PM | 2,151,384 | 17,183 |
| 2 PM | 2,201,496 | 17,341 |
| 3 PM | 2,102,223 | 16,069 |
| 4 PM | 2,260,041 | 17,669 |
| 5 PM | 1,843,635 | 16,304 |
| 6 PM | 1,986,666 | 16,504 |
| 7 PM | 1,688,423 | 13,416 |
| 8 PM | 942,688 | 7,807 |
| 9 PM | 874,019 | 7,721 |
| 10 PM | 760,760 | 7,251 |
| 11 PM | 916,853 | 8,391 |
How it’s counted
- Each match is one event with one winning market. The favorite is the market priced highest at the start. Results come from Kalshi’s settlements.
- Prices are from the last 1-minute bar that ends at the scheduled start, from the game's schedule (2,412 of 2,412 markets had one). Each market counts twice in the odds table: once for YES at its ask, once for NO at its ask (100¢ minus the YES bid).
- Return per $1 buys at that ask and pays Kalshi’s taker fee, 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, before rounding.
- Hours are Eastern Time. Days are UTC days of our files, Oct 12, 2026 to Nov 13, 2026; hours we didn’t record are left out.